PPT Slide

TWO PROOFS:

• Surprise surfaces only when we speak about ìefficacy,î not

  about evidence for prediction.
  

• When two causal models generate the same statistical data and

  In one we decide to use the drug yet in the other not to use it,
  
  our decision must be driven by causal and not by statistical
  considerations.

Thus, there is no statistical criterion to warn us against consulting

the wrong table.

• Can Temporal information help?

• No!, see Figure 6.3 (c).

THE INEVITABLE CONCLUSION:

THE PARADOX STEMS FROM

CAUSAL INTERPRETATION

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