SEWAL WRIGHT LECTURES
Sewall Wright Lecture Series
University of California, Los Angeles
THE MATHEMATICS OF CAUSE AND EFFECT
October 25 1999, 3:30-5:30pm
October 26,1999, 3:00-5:00pm
Room 210, The Fields Institute
These two lectures will summarize concepts, principles, and
mathematical tools that were found useful in applications
involving causal reasoning. The principles are based on
structural-model semantics, in which functional
(or counterfactual) relationships, representing autonomous
physical processes are the fundamental building blocks.
This formal basis has given rise to
symbolic calculi and graph-based algorithms
that enable one to elucidate meaningful relationships from data,
predict effects of actions and policies,
assess explanations of reported events,
and form theories of causal understanding and causal speech.
Judea Pearl is Professor of Computer Science and Statistics
and Director of the Cognitive Systems Laboratory at the University
of California, Los Angeles. He is the author of Heuristics (1984),
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems (1988),
(forthcoming), and close to 200 articles on various aspects of
automated reasoning, learning and inference.
Pearl is a member of the National Academy of Engineering, a
Fellow of the IEEE and AAAI, and a recipient
of the IJCAI Research Excellence Award in
Artificial Intelligence (1999).
BACKGROUND REFERENCES TO LECTURES:
``Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research,''
- Biometrika, Vol. 82, No. 4, 669-709, December 1995.
``Reasoning with cause and effect,''
- Proceedings of IJCAI-99, pp. 1437--1449, Morgan Kaufmann, 1999.
``Probabilities of causation: Three counterfactual interpretations and their
- January 1999. Forthcoming, Synthese.
``The Art and Science of Cause and Effect,''
- Public Lecture, October 1996.
- Epilogue to
CAUSALITY: Models, Reasoning, and Inference
(Cambridge University Press, Forthcoming January 2000).